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Creators/Authors contains: "Nickols, Kerry J"

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  1. Abstract Marine protected areas (MPAs) are widely implemented tools for long‐term ocean conservation and resource management. Assessments of MPA performance have largely focused on specific ecosystems individually and have rarely evaluated performance across multiple ecosystems either in an individual MPA or across an MPA network. We evaluated the conservation performance of 59 MPAs in California's large MPA network, which encompasses 4 primary ecosystems (surf zone, kelp forest, shallow reef, deep reef) and 4 bioregions, and identified MPA attributes that best explain performance. Using a meta‐analytic framework, we evaluated the ability of MPAs to conserve fish biomass, richness, and diversity. At the scale of the network and for 3 of 4 regions, the biomass of species targeted by fishing was positively associated with the level of regulatory protection and was greater inside no‐take MPAs, whereas species not targeted by fishing had similar biomass in MPAs and areas open to fishing. In contrast, species richness and diversity were not as strongly enhanced by MPA protection. The key features of conservation effectiveness included MPA age, preimplementation fisheries pressure, and habitat diversity. Important drivers of MPA effectiveness for single MPAs were consistent across MPAs in the network, spanning regions and ecosystems. With international targets aimed at protecting 30% of the world's oceans by 2030, MPA design and assessment frameworks should consider conservation performance at multiple ecologically relevant scales, from individual MPAs to MPA networks. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available August 1, 2026
  2. Climate change is causing decreases in pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) in coastal ecosystems. Canopy-forming giant kelp can locally increase DO and pH through photosynthesis, with the most pronounced effect expected in surface waters where the bulk of kelp biomass resides. However, limited observations are available from waters in canopies and measurements at depth show limited potential of giant kelp to ameliorate chemical conditions. We quantified spatiotemporal variability of surface biogeochemistry and assessed the role of biological and physical drivers in pH and DO modification at two locations differing in hydrodynamics inside and outside of two kelp forests in Monterey Bay, California in summer 2019. pH, DO, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and temperature were measured at and near the surface, in conjunction with physical parameters (currents and pressure), nutrients, and metrics of phytoplankton and kelp biological processes. DO and pH were highest, with lower DIC, at the surface inside kelp forests. However, differences inside vs. outside of kelp forests were small (DO 6–8%, pH 0.05 higher in kelp). The kelp forest with lower significant wave height and slower currents had greater modification of surface biogeochemistry as indicated by larger diel variation and slightly higher mean DO and pH, despite lower kelp growth rates. Differences between kelp forests and offshore areas were not driven by nutrients or phytoplankton. Although kelp had clear effects on biogeochemistry, which were modulated by hydrodynamics, the small magnitude and spatial extent of the effect limits the potential of kelp forests to mitigate acidification and hypoxia. 
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  3. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a key tool for achieving goals for biodiversity conservation and human well-being, including improving climate resilience and equitable access to nature. At a national level, they are central components in the U.S. commitment to conserve at least 30% of U.S. waters by 2030. By definition, the primary goal of an MPA is the long-term conservation of nature; however, not all MPAs provide the same ecological and social benefits. A U.S. system of MPAs that is equitable, well-managed, representative and connected, and includes areas at a level of protection that can deliver desired outcomes is best positioned to support national goals. We used a new MPA framework, The MPA Guide, to assess the level of protection and stage of establishment of the 50 largest U.S. MPAs, which make up 99.7% of the total U.S. MPA area (3.19 million km2). Over 96% of this area, including 99% of that which is fully or highly protected against extractive or destructive human activities, is in the central Pacific ocean. Total MPA area in other regions is sparse – only 1.9% of the U.S. ocean excluding the central Pacific is protected in any kind of MPA (120,976 km2). Over three quarters of the non-central Pacific MPA area is lightly or minimally protected against extractive or destructive human activities. These results highlight an urgent need to improve the quality, quantity, and representativeness of MPA protection in U.S. waters to bring benefits to human and marine communities. We identify and review the state of the science, including focal areas for achieving desired MPA outcomes and lessons learned from places where sound ecological and social design principles come together in MPAs that are set up to achieve national goals for equity, climate resilience, and biodiversity conservation. We recommend key opportunities for action specific to the U.S. context, including increasing funding, research, equity, and protection level for new and existing U.S. MPAs. 
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  4. Abstract Kelp forests are among the world's most productive marine ecosystems, and they have the potential to locally ameliorate ocean acidification (OA). In order to understand the contribution of kelp metabolism to local biogeochemistry, we must first quantify the natural variability and the relative contributions of physical and biological drivers to biogeochemical changes in space and time. We deployed an extensive instrument array in Monterey Bay, CA, inside and outside of a kelp forest to assess the degree to which giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) locally ameliorates present‐day acidic conditions which we expect to be exacerbated by OA. Temperature, pH, and O2variability occurred at semidiurnal, diurnal (tidal and diel), and longer upwelling event periods. Mean conditions were driven by offshore wind forcing and the delivery of upwelled water via nearshore internal bores. While near‐surface pH and O2were similar inside and outside the kelp forest, surface pH was elevated inside the kelp compared to outside, suggesting that the kelp canopy locally increased surface pH. We observed the greatest acidification stress deeper in the water column where pCO2reached levels as high as 1,300 μatm and aragonite undersaturation (ΩAr < 1) occurred on several occasions. At this site, kelp canopy modification of seawater properties, and thus any ameliorating effect against acidification, is greatest in a narrow band of surface water. The spatial disconnect between stress exposure at depth and reduction of acidification stress at the surface warrants further assessment of utilizing kelp forests as provisioners of local OA mitigation. 
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  5. Abstract Calls for using marine protected areas (MPAs) to achieve goals for nature and people are increasing globally. While the conservation and fisheries impacts of MPAs have been comparatively well‐studied, impacts on other dimensions of human use have received less attention. Understanding how humans engage with MPAs and identifying traits of MPAs that promote engagement is critical to designing MPA networks that achieve multiple goals effectively, equitably and with minimal environmental impact.In this paper, we characterize human engagement in California's MPA network, the world's largest MPA network scientifically designed to function as a coherent network (124 MPAs spanning 16% of state waters and 1300 km of coastline) and identify traits associated with higher human engagement. We assemble and compare diverse indicators of human engagement that capture recreational, educational and scientific activities across California's MPAs.We find that human engagement is correlated with nearby population density and that site “charisma” can expand human engagement beyond what would be predicted based on population density alone. Charismatic MPAs tend to be located near tourist destinations, have long sandy beaches and be adjacent to state parks and associated amenities. In contrast, underutilized MPAs were often more remote and lacked both sandy beaches and parking lot access.Synthesis and applications: These results suggest that achieving MPA goals associated with human engagement can be promoted by developing land‐based amenities that increase access to coastal MPAs or by locating new MPAs near existing amenities during the design phase. Alternatively, human engagement can be limited by locating MPAs in areas far from population centres, coastal amenities or sandy beaches. Furthermore, managers may want to prioritize monitoring, enforcement, education and outreach programmes in MPAs with traits that predict high human engagement. Understanding the extent to which human engagement impacts the conservation performance of MPAs is a critical next step to designing MPAs that minimize tradeoffs among potentially competing objectives. Read the freePlain Language Summaryfor this article on the Journal blog. 
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  6. Abstract Marine protected areas (MPAs) have gained attention as a conservation tool for enhancing ecosystem resilience to climate change. However, empirical evidence explicitly linking MPAs to enhanced ecological resilience is limited and mixed. To better understand whether MPAs can buffer climate impacts, we tested the resistance and recovery of marine communities to the 2014–2016 Northeast Pacific heatwave in the largest scientifically designed MPA network in the world off the coast of California, United States. The network consists of 124 MPAs (48 no‐take state marine reserves, and 76 partial‐take or special regulation conservation areas) implemented at different times, with full implementation completed in 2012. We compared fish, benthic invertebrate, and macroalgal community structure inside and outside of 13 no‐take MPAs across rocky intertidal, kelp forest, shallow reef, and deep reef nearshore habitats in California's Central Coast region from 2007 to 2020. We also explored whether MPA features, including age, size, depth, proportion rock, historic fishing pressure, habitat diversity and richness, connectivity, and fish biomass response ratios (proxy for ecological performance), conferred climate resilience for kelp forest and rocky intertidal habitats spanning 28 MPAs across the full network. Ecological communities dramatically shifted due to the marine heatwave across all four nearshore habitats, and MPAs did not facilitate habitat‐wide resistance or recovery. Only in protected rocky intertidal habitats did community structure significantly resist marine heatwave impacts. Community shifts were associated with a pronounced decline in the relative proportion of cold water species and an increase in warm water species. MPA features did not explain resistance or recovery to the marine heatwave. Collectively, our findings suggest that MPAs have limited ability to mitigate the impacts of marine heatwaves on community structure. Given that mechanisms of resilience to climate perturbations are complex, there is a clear need to expand assessments of ecosystem‐wide consequences resulting from acute climate‐driven perturbations, and the potential role of regulatory protection in mitigating community structure changes. 
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  7. Abstract Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are being implemented worldwide, yet there are few cases where managers make specific predictions of the response of previously harvested populations to MPA implementation.Such predictions are needed to evaluate whether MPAs are working as expected, and if not, why. This evaluation is necessary to perform adaptive management, identifying whether and when adjustments to management might be necessary to achieve MPA goals.Using monitoring data and population models, we quantified expected responses of targeted species to MPA implementation and compared them to monitoring data.The model required two factors to explain observed responses in MPAs: (a) pre‐MPA harvest rates, which can vary at local spatial scales, and (b) recruitment variability before and after MPA establishment. Low recruitment years before MPA establishment in our study system drove deviations from expected equilibrium population size distributions and introduced an additional time lag to response detectability.Synthesis and applications. We combined monitoring data and population models to show how (a) harvest rates prior to Marine Protected Area (MPA) implementation, (b) variability in recruitment, and (c) initial population size structure determine whether a response to MPA establishment is detectable. Pre‐MPA harvest rates across MPAs plays a large role in MPA response detectability, demonstrating the importance of measuring this poorly known parameter. While an intuitive expectation is for response detectability to depend on recruitment variability and stochasticity in population trajectories after MPA establishment, we address the overlooked role of recruitment variability before MPA establishment, which alters the size structure at the time of MPA establishment. These factors provide MPA practitioners with reasons whether or not MPAs may lead to responses of targeted species. Our overall approach provides a framework for a critical step of adaptive management. 
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